中国电力消费周期的路径演化识别——基于Markov区制转移模型

基于1980-2016年中国第一产业、第二产业（工业、建筑业）和第三产业的年度电力消费数据,采用H-P滤波技术对中国电力消费的趋势成分和波动成分轨迹进行刻画,运用马尔科夫区制转移[MS（n）-AR（p）]模型分析中国电力消费周期在各区制间的动态转移过程,识别改革开放以来中国电力消费周期的路径演化特征,在此基础上预测未来5年中国电力消费周期的区制分布情况。研究发现:（1）中国电力消费增长率的波动程度自2003年明显缩窄,且从2007年开始进入下行周期。（2）中国电力消费周期具有较强的稳定性,不易向着其收缩期和扩张期跨越。且中国电力消费处于"低速增长区制"的年份往往对应着中国经济发展相对趋缓的大环境。（3）2014-2015年中国电力消费向其收缩期转移的迹象明显,但预测结果表明,未来5年中国电力消费整体上将继续保持稳定增长的趋势。     

新贫困视域下乡村转型的困厄与重构路径

中国社会转型的重要背景之一是全球消费社会的到来。 这使得新穷人现象日渐凸显,并成为影响甚至主导整个社会转型的核心线索。 作为新穷人的典型表现,乡村新贫困既包括在城乡二元结构下,村民难以获得以城市生活方式为参照的社会公认生活水准而引发的结构性贫困,也包括由消费欲望激发的社会心理性贫困。 由此,乡村消费转型表现为如下困境:私人消费中,个体消费认同在地和脱嵌的困境以及家庭消费规范物质化和人伦的两难;集体消费中,消费品“上移冶和“下乡冶的悖论。 为应对这些困境,必须从消费角度,破解“新穷困冶的结构性和文化困境,实行新型城镇化和新农村建设并举。     

R&D cooperation in collaborative consumption of research equipment: An ERGM approach

High-tech research infrastructure is essential for state-of-the-art research, but requires many resources. Relatively weak actors, such as SMEs, cannot secure enough of those. Applying the concept of collaborative consumption via digital platforms, we examine the cooperative behavior of Korean SMEs that share research equipment to overcome their lack of resources. Also, we analyze configurations of a collaborative consumption network using the Exponential Random Graph Model. Network structural factor analysis shows sufficient effects of network positive feedback through cooperative consumption with a variety of popular providers and attributes analysis shows that SMEs frequently engage in collaborative consumption with their counterparts in the same region. This new cooperative model can achieve a virtuous cycle of policies, as it increases the efficiency of research infrastructure, preventing the unnecessary building of new research equipment and enabling relocation of underutilized infrastructure and online reservation of equipment.     

房价波动、 收入水平对住房消费的影响——基于SYS-GMM估计方法的区域差异分析

基于生命周期-持久收入假说,在一般随机Ramsey模型的基础上,推导包含房价、收入和财富的住房消费函数,利用2002年至2013年31个省直辖市的面板数据,采用两步System-GMM估计方法考察我国房价波动和居民收入水平对住房消费的影响.实证结果表明:房价波动对全国居民住房消费具有显著的抑制作用;其中,滞后期和当期房价波动与当期住房消费负相关,挤出效应明显;未来一期房价波动与住房消费变化方向一致,存在积极的财富效应;此外,房价波动对东中西部各地区居民住房消费的抑制作用存在较大差异,西部地区抑制效应最为明显;滞后期住房消费与当期住房消费变动方向一致,人均可支配收入波动和人均年底储蓄余额对我国人均住房消费都起着重要的支撑作用.     

Desperately seeking social approval: Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen and the moral limits of capitalist culture

Adam Smith and Thorstein Veblen shared much in matters of economic ontology. Both dismissed the very notion of an autonomous economic self and instead investigated the processes through which self and other are mutually constituted under changing cultural traditions of individual aspiration. Their strikingly similar critiques of status-oriented consumption and concern for the moral basis of the market economy are established in this manner. However, the political implications of their analyses point in different directions, with Veblen being the more radical. The Smithian individual can always use spectatorial insights to assert through genuinely praiseworthy behaviour personal moral distance from social norms of status-oriented consumption. The Veblenian individual, by contrast, has no such capacity for elevating abstract moral principles above socially-situated conduct, as mind and environment co-evolve in line with changing material circumstances of life. For Veblen, the rise of status-oriented consumption itself acted as a form of moral self-education that more deeply entrenched the social norms of ownership out of which it arose, thus the impossibility of an autonomous economic self was matched by the impossibility of an autonomous moral self. To his way of thinking, moral degradation in conspicuous consumption was irredeemably inscribed into the whole cultural structure of capitalism.     

大众消费文化背景下高雅音乐推广路径研究——以福建省为例

大众消费文化背景下，福建省高雅音乐推广存在消费意识比较薄弱、高雅音乐自身“高”“雅”、消费环境不够完善等问题，对此，可通过提高认知因素、丰富自身因素、优化环境因素三个途径改进，以期提高福建人民精神文化水平，推进福建省社会文明发展。     

社会主义生态文明建设的重要内容: 生态消费模式

当前，我国消费伴随着经济的快速发展日益被异化为“病态式消费”模式，这使得国民经济的协调发展遭到了严重破坏，甚至生态系统也面临着崩溃的危险。我国新富群体缺乏正确的消费观念，加上西方消费主义影响，引发了诸多的社会问题。实践证明，只有树立正确的消费观念、克制消费欲望、调整消费行为，才能建立生态消费模式，才能符合社会主义生态文明的要求，实现人与自然的协调发展。     

Peer and Friend Influences on Children's Eating

Peers and friends are perceived as important role models for the formation of children's attitudes and behaviours. A wealth of research has aimed to establish the contribution of peers and friends to children's developing eating behaviours, and their attitudes towards eating. This review describes and evaluates such research. Experimental research examining peer modelling of food consumption and liking is reviewed, and several individual child factors that are suggested to make children more or less receptive to peer and friend influences are discussed. The influence of children's perceptions of their peers’ and friends’ eating behaviours upon their own eating practices is also explored. The benefits of future longitudinal research to improve understanding of peer and friend influences on children's eating are emphasized.     

文化产业化背景下电视剧《胡杨女人》的商品消费性特征解析

《胡杨女人》是文化产业化背景下生产的蒙古族题材电视剧。该剧得以在央视1套和8套连续4次反复播出,与其在创作方面的创新性探索不无关联,尤其突出表现为剧作的商品消费性特征明显,即注重讲故事、民俗文化参与叙事、自然景观的奇异化。该剧的成功为文化产业化时代蒙古族题材电视剧的创作提供了可供借鉴的范式。     

扩大上海文化消费研究

扩大上海文化消费包括文化消费规模的扩大和文化消费结构的优化两方面,这对上海转变经济发展方式、扩大内需、提高人口素质、社会稳定和增强城市软实力均具有重要意义。扩大上海文化消费,关键在于树立都市文化消费品牌,发展文化消费价值链或集聚带,提升文化内涵和形象;重点是抓好"三网融合",大力推进信息服务的基础设施和大众文化基础设施建设;不断创新机制,培育原创文化,吸引文化人才,建立文化高地;推进文化产业与文化事业的协同发展。